Among other news agencies,
Reuters is reporting on a new
International Energy Agency study,
Saving Oil in a Hurry (link is to a February 28 draft copy), about to be released, that recommends industrialized nations prepare to take significant steps to reduce demand for oil in the likely event of a supply disruption on the order of 1-2 million barrels/day.
This level of disruption is considerably below the margin previously assumed available before emergency measures would be required. The emergency measures the draft version of the report specifically mentions are grouped by effectiveness:
Very Large (more than 1 million bpd):
- Carpooling: large programme to designate emergency carpool lanes along
all motorways, designate park-and-ride lots, inform public and match riders
- Driving ban: odd/even licence plate scheme. Provide police enforcement,
appropriate information and signage
- Speed limits: reduce highway speed limits to 90km/hr. Provide police
enforcement or speed cameras, appropriate information and signage
Large: 500,000 to 1 million bpd
- Transit: free public transit (set fares to zero)
- Telecommuting: large programme, including active participation of
businesses, public information on benefits of telecommuting, minor investments in needed infrastructure to facilitate
- Compressed work week: programme with employer participation and
public information campaign
- Driving ban: 1 in 10 days based on licence plate, with police enforcement
and signage
Moderate: 100,000 to 500,000 bpd
- Transit: 50% reduction in current public transit fares
- Transit: increase weekend and off-peak transit service and increase peak
service frequency by 10%
- Carpooling: small programme to inform public, match riders
- Tyre pressure: large public information programme
Small: less than 100,000 bpd
- Bus priority: convert all existing carpool and bus lanes to 24-
priority usage and convert some other lanes to bus-only lanes
How long before such "emergency" measures, and worse, become permanent, if the oil peak folks are correct? Oil futures closed at another record high today.